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Super Tuesday Preview

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Today is Super Tuesday, often referred to as the most important day on the primary calendar. The states that vote today are home to almost 20 million more people than the entire population of the United Kingdom, and the 595 Republican and 1,004 Democratic delegates on offer represent almost half the total needed to win each party’s nomination. In every presidential election since 1988, the winner of the most states on Super Tuesday for either party has gone on to be the nominee.

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The Parallel Republican Primary

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After several months of preamble, the nominating process to find the next president of the United States officially started this week with Monday’s Iowa caucuses. The theme on both sides of the political divide was of outsiders breaking down barriers. Hillary Clinton became the first woman ever to win in Iowa, while Ted Cruz went one better, becoming the first Latino to win a presidential primary or caucus in any state.

With the New Hampshire primary two days away, it seems this theme will continue, with real estate mogul Donald Trump and democratic socialist Bernie Sanders the unlikely frontrunners in their respective primaries. While the arrival of the outsiders will likely dominate the headlines of Wednesday’s newspapers however, of perhaps more importance to the race is the ‘parallel primary’ taking place within the Republican field: a four-way battle for the support of the establishment.

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Hope and Change Revisited

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It has now been eight years since Barack Obama won the first Democratic primary in the 2008 election campaign, opening his victory speech that night in Iowa with reference to those who ‘said this day would never come’:

They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose. But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.

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2014 Midterm Preview Part Three: The Governors

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With the midterm elections tomorrow, this third and final preview post concerns the 36 gubernatorial races taking place across the country.

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2014 Midterm Preview Part Two: The House of Representatives

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I tend not to make predictions on this blog, but when it comes to the House of Representatives in the 2014 elections, the word ‘prediction’ doesn’t really apply. The Republican Party simply will retain control of the chamber.

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2014 Midterm Preview Part One: The Senate

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It is now one month before Americans go to the polls to vote in the final midterm elections of Barack Obama’s presidency. This first preview post will focus on what looks to be the most important and interesting battleground of this election season: the Senate.

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The Fact of the Iran Deal is More Important Than its Terms

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On Sunday morning in Geneva, representatives of Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) agreed an interim agreement tailored to ensure the peaceful application of Iran’s nuclear programme. The agreement, a first step towards a more comprehensive deal in six months, states that Iran will freeze certain enrichment programmes, dilute stocks of uranium, and submit to daily inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In return they will receive access to certain frozen overseas accounts, and some sanctions will be relaxed – a deal worth about $7 billion to Iran.

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The Republicans & Walter White: Breaking Bad Over Obamacare

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There is a scene in the third season of AMC’s Breaking Bad in which Walter White, sleep-deprived and on a large dose of sleeping pills, muses on the thought that he has lived too long. The show, for the few still unaware, centres on a high school chemistry teacher who turns to the manufacture and distribution of methamphetamine when he is diagnosed with cancer, slowly becoming a feared and ruthless drug lord in the process. In the episode in question, he laments that he had missed his ‘perfect moment’ to succumb to his cancer – a point where he had made enough money to take care of his family without giving up too much of himself.

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Shutdown

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As a foreign observer of American politics, every now and then something will arise that is so alien as to be bordering on incomprehensible. The current Republican-led shutdown of the US government is perhaps the strongest example of this in recent memory.

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Whistleblowers and Traitors

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The United States has long been divided by a fundamental difference of opinion. This is a conflict between those who evaluate ‘American’ or ‘anti-American’ acts based on how they affect American interests, and those who evaluate them on how they reflect American values, as set out in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

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